Die Ergebnisse einer interdisziplinären Untersuchung von Kollegen der University of New Hampshire, Lawrence C. Hamilton und Mary D. Stampone, erschienen im Journal der American Meteorological Society, lassen darauf schließen, dass die Ansichten von Laien zum Thema Klimawandel signifikant davon abhängen, wie ungewöhnlich das Wetter am Tag des Interviews ist. Auch wenn dies wohl die Zyniker unter uns nicht mehr wirklich überraschen dürfte, wirft es meiner Meinung doch ein weiteres Mal die Frage auf, wie viel “scientific literacy” wir tatsächlich erwarten können, bzw. ob oder wie viel wir daran allein durch mehr Information und Aufklärung im klassischen Verständnis der Wissenschaftskommunikation wirklich ändern können. Wasser auf die Mühlen der Skeptiker also.

Ergänzung auf einen Kommentar von ‘Martin Haug’ hin:
Die folgende Visualisierung zeigt die Deviation sehr anschaulich, vor allem dass sich die parteipolitisch nach eigenen Angaben Ungebundenen besonders stark von Wetteranomalien beeinflussen lassen.
Kommentar hierzu von den Kollegen in USA:

The lines are predicted probabilities from a weighted logit regression model, which estimates the effects of temperature along with individual age, sex, education and political party, and season of the year, using data from about 5,000 interviews. Shaded bands in the graph are 95% confidence limits.

We looked not at absolute temperature but at temperature anomalies — deviations of each day’s temperature from the normal (1981-2010) temperature for that date. Two-day average anomaly (the interview day and previous day) seems to have the strongest effect on climate beliefs, controlling for the other factors. Over the 99 dates covered by our interviews, these 2-day anomalies ranged from about -6 to +12 C. According to this analysis, temperature effects on the beliefs of independents are statistically significant (p = .001).

Aus der Studie:

Interviewed on unseasonably warm days, Independents tend to agree with the scientific consensus regarding anthropogenic climate change. On unseasonably cool days, they tend not to. Although temperature effects are sharpest for just a 2-day window, we see positive effects for longer windows as well.

Ernüchternde Zahlen zum Thema “Literacy” (siehe nebenstehenden Scan, hier aus dem Jahr 2005, basierend wie fast immer bei diesen Untersuchungen auf einem Fragenkanon wie etwa “Dreht sich die Erde um die Sonne oder umgekehrt?”) findet man bei Miller (2012): “The sources and impact of civic scientific literacy” in: M. Bauer et al. (Hrsg.): The culture of science. (Seiten 217-240). New York: Routledge.

Kommentare (65)

  1. #1 Anwalts_Liebling
    27. Januar 2013

    Dreht sich die Erde um die Onne oder umgekehrt?

    Na – um die Onne dreht sich wenig :-) Schenke ein “S”…

    Im Ernst – Meine Schwägerin war Buchhändlerin und war immer erstaunt, wenn ich Wissenschaftliche Bücher bestellt habe (vorrätig waren die selten – kaufte keiner). Ausnahmen waren so tolle Bücher wie damals Däniker o.ä. – daher ist es auch kein Wunder, das schon mal gerne aus einem kalten Tag eine Eiszeit gemacht wird

  2. #2 Statistiker
    27. Januar 2013

    Schenke dem Anwalt ein “n”……

    Tja, das erlebe ich selber immer wieder. Der Unterschied zwischen “Wetter” und Klima” ist vielen Menschen wohl zu hoch……

  3. #3 Gerald Fix
    27. Januar 2013

    Wieviel ‘scientific literacy’ erwarten Sie denn? Zum wissenschaftlichen Verständnis gibt’s halt keinen Königsweg. Letztendlich bin als Laie darauf angewiesen, dass die ‘richtige’ Ansicht in der Öffentlichkeit das Übergewicht gewinnt. Wenn es anders wäre, würden die Interessenverbände nicht so viel Geld investieren.

    Ich kann zur Klimaentwicklung – oder zur Gentechnik, zur Wirtschaftspolitik oder zu Stuttgart 21 – Bücher und Blogs lesen und Fernsehsendungen anschauen. Die Frage, wer recht hat, Herr Rahmstorff oder Herr Reichholf, kann ich aber letztendlich nicht vollständig aus den Argumenten erschließen.

    Drum, schimpfen Sie nicht allzusehr auf das dumme Volk und hoffen Sie einfach, dass die nächsten Abstimmungen in den Parlamenten an heißen Tagen stattfinden :-)

  4. #4 Martin Haug
    27. Januar 2013

    Die wichtigste Info fehlt: Wie groß war die Abweichung zwischen kalten und warmen Tagen?
    Das man sich den Klimawandel an ungewöhnlich warmen Tagen besser vorstellen kann ist einleuchtend, das dürfte Experten nicht anders gehen. Aber wenn man sich eine Meinung über das Thema gebildet hat, sollte die Abweichung gering sein.

  5. #5 Alexander Gerber
    29. Januar 2013

    @ Martin Haug: Antwort / Details siehe oben im Text. Danke fürs Feedback! :-)

  6. […] Gehirnes liegen, als auch in der Koordination der Interaktion dieser vielen Projektpartner.” Alexander Gerber, Scienceblogs Das Wetter macht den […]

  7. #7 DH
    1. Februar 2013

    Schließe mich da nicht aus , ist es für die Jahreszeit zu warm , kommt mir auch eher der Klimawandel in den Sinn.

    Finde das auch nicht völlig falsch , auch ein bißchen Instinkt gehört bei dem Thema dazu.

    Es ist schon deutlich spürbar , daß sich etwas geändert hat , auch ohne Zahlen.

  8. #8 Randifan
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    Solange manche Klimaforscher die Menschheit mit Welteruntergangsszenarien erschrecken, werden sie es schwer haben, überzeugend zu sein

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